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Calculated Risks
At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Risk Savvy
A fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of Reckoning with Risk.Risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. Yet for many important decisions, we're often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields - policy makers, financial advisors, doctors - to analyse and choose for us. But what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? How do we make sure we're asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? Is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner?This entertaining book shows us how to recognize when we don't have all the information and know what to do about it. Gerd Gigerenzer looks at examples from every aspect of life to identify the reasons for our collective misunderstanding of the risks we face. He shows how we can all use simple rules to avoid being manipulated into unrealistic fears or hopes, to make better-informed decisions, and to learn to understand risk and uncertainty in our own lives.'Gigerenzer is brilliant and his topic is fabulous' Steven Pinker'Catchily optimistic and slyly funny' GuardianGerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including Reckoning with Risk.
Smart Management
Why successful leaders must embrace simple strategies in an increasingly uncertain and complex world.Making decisions is one of the key tasks of managers, leaders, and professionals. In Smart Management, Jochen Reb, Shenghua Luan, and Gerd Gigerenzer demonstrate how business leaders can utilize heuristics—simple decision-making strategies adapted to the task at hand. In a world that has become increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA), the authors make the case against complex analytical methods that quickly reach their limits. This against-the-grain approach leads to decisions that are not only faster but also more accurate, transparent, and easier to learn about, communicate, and teach. Smart Management offers an evidence-based yet practical discussion of how business leaders can use smart heuristics to make good decisions in a VUCA world.Building on the fast-and-frugal heuristics program, Smart Management demonstrates the efficacy of heuristic decision making in a twofold approach. First, it introduces the concept of ecological rationality, which prescribes the environmental conditions under which specific heuristics work well. Second, the book describes a repertoire of heuristics, referred to as the adaptive toolbox, that leaders, managers, and professionals can develop and rely on to make a variety of decisions, such as on business strategy, negotiation, and personnel selection. The toolbox not only showcases the practical usefulness of these heuristics but also inspires readers to discover and develop their own smart heuristics.
Classification in the Wild
Rules for building formal models that use fast-and-frugal heuristics, extending the psychological study of classification to the real world of uncertainty.This book focuses on classification--allocating objects into categories--"in the wild," in real-world situations and far from the certainty of the lab. In the wild, unlike in typical psychological experiments, the future is not knowable and uncertainty cannot be meaningfully reduced to probability. Connecting the science of heuristics with machine learning, the book shows how to create formal models using classification rules that are simple, fast, and transparent and that can be as accurate as mathematically sophisticated algorithms developed for machine learning.
Even Given the Worthless "Appraiser" Class, I'm Actually the Strongest 3
In a fantasy world where "jobs" are god-given from birth, heroes are born, not made...and Ain's job of "Appraiser" has put him about as far from the "hero" pedestal as possible. Used, abused, and eventually abandoned by his fellow adventurers, Ain decides it just isn't worth going on... Lucky for Ain, though, the end may just be the beginning...and a new lease on life. Turns out, his "worthless" job may just be the key to becoming a hero after all... After befriending the second World Tree spirit, Pina, things have gotten a lot livelier for Ein and the gang! But their carefree days are about to be overturned by the mysterious spirit Ekhidna and the dark power she offers to the disgraced Zoid...
The Abandoned Reincarnation Sage 1
Belamus was once a great sage with the power of reincarnation...but as all lives must pass, so did his. He reincarnated with his memories, but was suddenly abandoned as a newborn child! Luckily for him, he was adopted by the nearby goblin tribe...but this moment of kindness may mean more for both the Goblins and Belamus than either of them know!
As a Reincarnated Aristocrat, I'll Use My Appraisal Skill to Rise in the World 2
ROSELL KISCHAAfter his uneventful life gets cut short, a salaryman is reborn in another world as the child aristocrat Ars Louvent. Using his unique "appraisal" skill, Ars discovers and recruits a fledgling swordsman named Rietz and a girl named Charlotte with a gift for magic. However, Ars’s small domain will need even more talented people if it is to survive--which is why a shy, young bookworm with an extraordinary intellect might be just what Ars is looking for!
As a Reincarnated Aristocrat, I'll Use My Appraisal Skill to Rise in the World 1
BRAINS OVER BRAWN A salaryman suffers a heart attack and is reborn in another world as Ars Louvent, the child of an aristocratic house. Though lacking in physical strength, Ars has a unique “appraisal” skill that lets him see other people’s stats and latent abilities. He puts this skill to the test by discovering a downtrodden young man with fearsome blade skills and a street urchin with a knack for magic. Has Ars found the diamonds in the rough that will help him secure his family’s fortunes?
As a Reincarnated Aristocrat, I'll Use My Appraisal Skill to Rise in the World 3
BETROTHED Reincarnated as a child aristocrat in another world, Ars Louvent wastes no time in using his "appraisal" skill to recruit promising talent to his side. With the swordsman Rietz, the mage Charlotte, and the bookworm Rosell as his new vassals, Ars begins to see real hope of turning his weak domain around. Yet, the flames of unrest are spreading throughout the empire, and Ars now finds himself facing a different kind of flame altogether: his fiancee!
Reborn to Master the Blade: From Hero-King to Extraordinary Squire ♀ (Manga) Volume 2
It was supposed to be a lovely banquet that the reincarnated Inglis was invited to, but after crossing an old rival’s newfound authority as a Highlander, things took a turn for the worse. Inglis sets off in the dead of night to settle the score, but in her way are foes she never expected to cross blades with—a challenge Inglis is all too eager to accept. The political machinations of the world Inglis lives in continue to turn, but her goal remains the same: to master the blade!
As a Reincarnated Aristocrat, I'll Use My Appraisal Skill to Rise in the World 7
LICIA'S MOMENT With Mireille now a full member of his camp, Ars turns his attention to ending the stalemate in the war of succession. Rosell proposes that they attempt to bring the neighboring province of Paradille to their side. Given Paradille's imperialist leanings, winning them over will require bribing the emperor to act as a mediator on Ars's behalf. And who better to handle such a delicate negotiation than Licia, Ars's clever new bride?
I Was Reincarnated as the 7th Prince so I Can Take My Time Perfecting My Magical Ability 9
The advent of anarchy The Advent Festival, which celebrates the birth of God, has arrived. And with it, the revelation of the identity of the mysterious priest behind the sickening chimeras has shocked the people of Saloum! Every able hand is called to battle this crisis, with Grim and Jihriel rushed back to the surface, Sylpha fighting without a sword, and Babylon cornered with enemies on all sides. How will they escape…?